The following are my predictions for this year’s Oscars, as well as those of my friend and podcast partner Devin Mitchell. We composed our ballots separately. The similarities on our ballots are a reflection of the increasing predictability of the nominations in the age of the yearlong hype cycle.
Each year, a collection of fewer than 100 international journalists known as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association choose their favorites in film and television from the past year. The awards are delivered at a raucous, booze-infused ceremony televised on NBC in January. This year, they’re coming just four days before the Oscar nominations.
Precedent suggests the HFPA doesn’t put a ton of rigorous thought or intellectual judgment into its decisions for the winners, so I’ve followed suit and cobbled together a list of predictions based entirely on instinct. Any time I wavered or waffled, I forced myself to pick a nominee and move on. Take this list as seriously as you do the average Golden Globe choice — which is to say, not much at all. Check back tonight to see how well I did.
MOVIES
Best Motion Picture, Drama: Spotlight
Best Actress in a Drama: Brie Larson, Room
Best Actor in a Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Best Motion Picture, Comedy: The Big Short
Best Actress in a Comedy: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Best Actor in a Comedy: Matt Damon, The Martian
Best Animated Motion Picture: Inside Out
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture: Son of Saul
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Best Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Best Screenplay: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Best Original Song: “See You Again,” Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth, Furious 7
TELEVISION
Best Drama Series: Empire
Best Actress, Drama: Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Best Actor, Drama: Wagner Moura, Narcos
Best Comedy Series: Casual
Best Actress, Comedy: Jamie Lee Curtis, Scream Queens
Best Actor, Comedy: Rob Lowe, The Grinder
Best Limited Series: Fargo
Best Actress in a Limited Series: Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel
Best Actor in a Limited Series: Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero
Best Supporting Actress: Judith Light, Transparent
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
